Improving Your Game

Once you have played a few games of poker, gotten over your early nerves, and become comfortable with your play and the other players, it is natural to begin to want to know how to better play the game.

Poker, like many games that are easy to learn, takes many years to master.  In fact, the very top poker professionals, some who have been playing for sixty years or more, all acknowledge that they still have more to learn, and learn more every time they sit down at the poker table.

In the same way that you can appreciate art, music or wine all the more by learning more about them, so too will you find poker even more fun as your knowledge and skill in the game increases.

There are many, many web sites that offer excellent tips and advice to improve your poker game.  Also over 160 poker books are currently in print.  The best ones of both I know of are listed on the links page.

The best advice I can give to a beginning player looking to improve is to understand the 'outs' (which is another way of saying what are the chances of making a hand) and the concept of pot odds.  Once you know those two things, you are well on your way to becoming a consistent winner over time.

Pot Odds

Pot odds are simply the cost of calling the last bet or raise compared to the amount of chips in the pot.  For example, of there are 1,000 chips in the pot, and your opponent bets 100, then the pot is 1,100.  It will cost you 100 to call your opponents bet, so your pot odds are 100/1,100, or 11 to 1.  Another way to think of it is to add up the total in the pot and say 'it will cost me 100 to win 1,100'.

Say however there is 500 in the pot and your opponent bets 500 to make the pot 1,000.  It will cost you 500 to win 1,000 if you call, so your pot odds are 2 to 1 - your bet of 500 will win you 1,000.

It isn't necessary to figure out the exact pot odds to the last decimal place.  Usually to the nearest half is fine for most purposes.  If there is about 1,875 in the pot and it is going to cost you 550 to call, rounding off to say it is 3 1/2 to one is just fine.

Outs

The second key piece of knowledge you need to know is what the chances of hitting a particular hand are given the cards you have and that may already be on the board.  This is known as the number of 'outs' - which is how many cards in the remaining cards can improve your hand or give you the winning hand.

This is explained very well in Phil Gordon's Little Black Book on Poker.  Which is an excellent book for those just starting in poker and an enjoyable read.

For example, if you have two diamonds in your hand, and the flop also has two diamonds, then you need one more diamond on the turn or the river to give you a flush.  Since there are 13 cards in each suit, and you have two diamonds and two are on the board, then there are nine cards left that could give you the flush.  In this case you would say there are 9 outs.  The chance of hitting one of those eight cards is 9 in 47 (on the turn) plus 9 in 46 (on the river), or slightly better than 2 to 1 against. 

Another example is if you have a pair of kings and your opponent has a pair of queens.  If there is only the river card to come and no flush or straight is possible, then your opponent has exactly 2 outs (the remaining two queens) with which they could beat you.  The chance of them hitting their 'two card outer' is 2 in 47, or about 23 to 1 against.

If that all sounds like a lot of math to do, don't worry, there is a very easy short cut you can use.  For each out, multiply by 4 for your chances to hit on the turn or river, and by 2 for your chance to hit on the river alone.  To go back to our first example, with 8 outs to make the flush, you can figure a 4 x 9 = 36% chance (about 2:1) after the flop, or 2 x 9 = 18% (call it 4 1/2:1) to hit on the river.

Outs and Pot Odds Together

Ok, so now you know the chance of hitting your outs (if you are behind), or the chance of your opponent hitting their outs (if you are ahead).  And you know how to work out pot odds, or what to bet to make particular pot odds.

You win in poker when your opponent makes a mistake, you lose in poker when you make a mistake.

What you want to do is use you knowledge of the outs you have, or the outs you think you opponent has, to deny them the correct odds to continue to play without making a mistake.  This is best explained by example.

Case 1 - using the first example above, after the flop you have 9 outs to make your flush.  Your opponent has either a pair or trips, but either way will beat you if you don't hit a diamond.  The pot is 1,000 and your opponent acts first and bets 500.  There is now 1,500 in the pot and it costs you 500 to call, so your pot odds are 3 to 1 in your favour.  As we have worked out, the chance of hitting your diamond on the next two cards is 2 to 1 against.  Therefore your opponent has made a mistake by letting you see the next card at better odds in your favour than against.  You should definitely call here - even though you might not hit your card, over many hands you will be well ahead with those odds.

But say your opponent bet 2,000 instead.  The pot is now 3,000 and it costs you 2,000 to call, your pot odds are exactly 1:2 against, but your outs give you just under 2:1.  Your opponent has denied you the correct odds to complete your flush draw, and it would be a mistake for you to call - even though you may still hit your card, you have a losing proposition over many hands with those odds.

Case 2 - you have 88 and the board is Q J 8.  You strongly suspect your opponent has A K and so will make a straight if a 10 hits.  In other words, they have 4 outs, which is 4 x 4 = 16% chance to hit a 10 by the river.  The pot is 1,000 and you are first to act.  Certainly a big bet here, say 500, (if your opponent has the hand you think he has) will win you the pot, but what you really want it to get the most value from your hand, which means getting the most chips from your opponent, without making a mistake.

A bet of 100 would almost certainly keep your opponent in the hand, he would be getting 11:1 odds, but that would be a mistake on your part by offering him a cheap way to hit his hand and beat you. 

Consider however a bet of 250.  He only has to bet 250 to win 1,250 or 5:1 - it looks encouraging, but the his outs give him only 5 1/2 to one.  If he does call, as you hope he will, he has made a mistake.

He calls.  There is now 1,500 in the pot.  The turn card is a K.  You are still well ahead with your trip 8's, but your opponent has now picked up two more outs, as one of the two remaining kings will give him trip kings to beat your 8's.  There are now 6 cards in the remaining 46 that can give him the winning hand.  His chances are  7 1/2 to 1. Again, a bet of about 250 (7:1) or 300 (6:1) is about right for maximum value at this point.

Mistakes

You will notice I use the work 'mistake' to describe calling with the wrong odds.  The term 'mistake' has a specific meaning in context I am using it, defined by David Sklansky in his book The Theory of Poker  as the Fundamental Theorem of Poker:

"Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose."

Implied Odds

There is one more thing to consider when betting or facing a bet after the flop - that is, what bet are you likely to face on the river?

Say you are again drawing to a flush, needing one card on the turn or river.  With a pot of 1,000 your opponent makes a pot size bet of 1,000 giving you 2:1 pot odds.  With slightly better than 2:1 odds to hit your flush, calling seems right.

But say a blank (a card that does not help you) comes on the turn.  It is very likely that your opponent will bet again.  The pot is now 3,000 and your opponent now bets 2,000 into you.  You now must risk 2,000 to with 5,000, pot odds of 2 1/2 to 1.  However with just one card to come your chances to hit are only 5:1 - so it is a mistake to make that call.

Effectively, your call after the flop is dead money because you will still have to face two more bets if you don't make your hand with the next card.

You had the correct odds to call a pot sized bet after the flop, but the implied odds ot future bets (assuming your opponent has the chips to make them) means it is a mistake to call.

Similarly, if you have a pair or trips after the flop and you think you are ahead, but there are two suited cards on the board (or cards that could give your opponent a straight), then you must make sure you deny your opponent the correct odds to call and draw out on you.  A bet or raise of about the size of the pot will almost always do that.

Other Considerations

The above is a good way to start thinking about outs and odds.  There will be lots of other factors in a live game to take into account however.  Your opponents wont always be cooperative in response to your bets, instead of calling, they might raise, either because they have a better hand than you thought, or to bluff you into thinking that so you fold a better hand,  It is also very likely that your opponent may just make a mistake (even assuming they are thinking about their outs and pot odds) and make the wrong play for the situation.

Quite a few people I play with regularly have, I am sure, no idea at all about odds.  Rather, they play the person, not the cards.  That is, they look at how I have played the hand earlier, what they know of how I have played in the past, and my general demeanor with the action I am taking now.  Based on that, and a rough understanding of the value of their own cards, they are often able to make very good calls on what I have, and then by making the appropriate bets, beat me in that hand.

'Playing the player' is a very valid way to be successful in poker.  Top professionals such as Phil Hellmuth, Annie Duke and Jennifer Harman are renown for their ability to read their opponents.  So that too should be an area to think about early on and try an improve as you progress.

Gambling

Remember Rule 1 of poker - it should be fun.  And sometimes you just gotta gamble.  

It's down to you and two other players, you have 8,000, the pot is 4,000 and one of your opponents has just gone all in for his last 6,000 after the flop.  You have a draw to the nut straight - you know you don't have the right odds to call, but a win here will knock one player out and give you a commanding chip lead against the remaining player.

Do you gamble make the call?

I would.  It's great fun.  Maybe my opponent is just trying to 'buy the pot' and his all in bet is just a bluff.  Maybe he has a pair or trips, and if I hit the straight I will have them smashed.  But if I miss, my stack is crippled.

My chips go into the pot.  The other player folds.  My opponent flips his cards and shows Q high with a 7 - a pure bluff, but still ahead of my current 10 high (with 7 8  on the board and 9 is my other card)

We both stand up, "Six" I call to the dealer.  "Queen" calls my opponent.

The dealer burns a card, turns the next card..... A Seven!  Oh no, we both pair, but his queen kicker means he is still ahead.

"Yes!" exclaims the other guy as he punches the air.

"Come on six or jack, six or jack"  I call as the dealer prepares to deal the river.

"Pair the board" yells my opponent.

The dealer carefully burns the next card, takes off the river card and places it face down next to the turn card.  Slides her forefinger under the card, griping the top of the card with her thumb and begins to turn it over.

The card is lifted to ten degrees.

Twenty degrees.

Thirty degrees.  Now high enough to see the suit.  It's black.  It's not a face card.

Is it the six I need?

The dealer completes the flip.

And it's a ...............................................................................................